Tampa and Miami home owners had something to feel good about as the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index Report showed improvement in their, and 17 other measured markets for April 2009. The national press was unusually upbeat about the report as well. Despite some of the headlines issued from sites like Business Week and Bloomberg.
Here are some of the headlines about the story:
- Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline Only 18% (Business Week)
- Case-Shiller Less Bad (Seeking Alpha)
- Home Prices In 20 Cities Drop Less Than Expected (Bloomberg)
Though the headlines feel negative, they really do show some of the upside for April’s housing value figures. For example, nearly half of the Case-Shiller markets posted gains in April and all but one showed month-over-month improvement.
Does This Report Mean We’re Out of the Woods?
Well, no – but it’s a step in the right direction. Remember – stats can tell multiple stories – depending how much we’re willing to read into them.
With reports like the Case-Shiller, we need to be careful with our interpretation because it’s an imperfect housing gauge. The most obvious Case-Shiller flaw is that it only measures home values in 20 cities nationwide and they’re not even the 20 biggest cities.
For example: Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio and San Jose are excluded from the report and each ranks among the country’s 10 largest housing markets based on population.
The Case-Shiller Index is valuable mainly because it identifies broader housing trends and that helps to shape economic policy.
What we see in this report that is verifiable is this: The pace at which home values are falling appears to be slowing – marking the 3rd straight month Case-Shiller has reported as such.
Now, three months makes a trend, but the data has to stay strong through the summer months to mark a bona fide turnaround. Keep an eye out. If we see similar metrics for May and June, it could be the signal for which the markets have been waiting.
I hope you found this post useful! As always, if you or anyone you know is in need of a local Florida mortgage broker, I’m your guy. Call me at 863-604-3019 or apply online for your Florida mortgage. We’ll keep you posted and let you know when it’s time to pull the trigger!
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Hi Kevin,
That looks like a good sign, doesn’t it? In our area we saw more sales for May than in previous months. I’m being hopeful things are starting to turn back around.
Barbara Swafford´s last blog ..Finding Pleasure In Ordinary Things
Hey Barbara! Thanks so much for stopping by! I think we are see “signs,” but we need to wait to see what the next Case-Shiller report tells us. I’d personally like to see two more editions of this report show positive numbers. If we get that – it may signify that a turnaround is in fact at hand.
Isn’t funny that we have come to a time when we can say “home prices decline only 18%. ” These numbers are all seasonal in my veiw. Unemployment is now at it highest level in 26 years and rising and there is an entire wave of new foreclosures coming. Given this, I think this market is here to stay until 2012 at least.
Kevin Curts @MN MLS´s last blog ..14898 Easter Avenue , Apple Valley, MN
I was curious as to how you get the headline “Home Prices Improve “. Both the data in the chart above and the data from the Case-Chiller website suggest Miami and Tampa prices fell again in April even seasonally adjusted. Are you suggesting “Prices” improved because they did not fall as much?
Hey Tim – yeah, pretty much. We saw less of a value drop.