Well folks – we’re going on week 2 of a scenario where Florida mortgage markets started strong and then petered out. Ending the week short due to holiday didn’t help much and, as a result – mortgage rates were pretty much flat all in all.
Limited Economic Data Keeps Florida Mortgage Rates Stagnant
No real news to cause mortgage rates to rise or fall much last week, as what little roller coaster (up and down) action we saw hinged on two events:
- A reputable analyst warned that banking-sector optimism may be a bit premature
- Wells Fargo announced a record $3 billion in first quarter earnings
The banking analysis news caused mortgage rates to dip, and the the second item, in short, pushed them back up.
This Week: Data, Data, Data
Retail sales numbers will release on Tuesday. We’ve talked a great deal on this blog about the power of consumer confidence to work magic (black or white… good or bad) on financial and mortgage markets.
Tuesday – April 14, 2009
All told, consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of the US economy. So, a lower-than-expected number reported for Retail Sales would lay a stinky wet dish rag on top of Wall Street’s current optimism for the U.S. – which would likely lead mortgage rates lower.
Wednesday – April 15, 2009
Wednesday marks the date that the government will release a much anticipated “cost of living” measurement called the Consumer Price Index (CPI). At its roots, CPI is an inflation gauge for the economy so — because inflation is bad for mortgage rates — a higher-than-expected CPI number is expected to push mortgage rates higher.
Thursday – April 16, 2009
Thursday, we should get new Housing Starts data. This data will tell us how many homes the nation’s builders initiated last month. An uptick in Housing Starts may be a sign that builders are optimistic for housing — a good sign for the economy. However, lower than anticipated Housing Starts totals may mean an increase in existing home sales activity over the next few months — also a good sign for the economy.
Financial Firms to Release Quarter 1 2009 Earnings this Week
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup — three of the nation’s largest financial firms — will release first quarter earnings this week. If these three firms post postive numbers like Wells Fargo’s did, expect mortgage rates to go higher as they did after the Wells Fargo report. As we’ve often said, what’s good for stocks right now may prove to be bad for mortgage rates. This is because money tends to flow out of bonds (generally safer investments) and into stocks (generally riskier investments) when the markets get hot.
Note: Goldman Sachs reports on Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase on Thursday and Citigroup on Friday.
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I hope you found this post useful! As always, if you or anyone you know is in need of a local Florida mortgage broker, I’m your guy. Call me at 863-604-3019 or apply online for your Florida mortgage. We’ll keep you posted and let you know when it’s time to pull the trigger!
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