I can’t thank you and Chuck enough for shedding some much needed light on this situation. I’m not quite sure why more folks aren’t upset by all this. Maybe they are and we don’t hear them, or perhaps they simply don’t know.

I’ll keep my eyes peeled for your LL post – reference it here – and then link back to you.

Thanks again, Billy.

First, thanks for taking the time to read and think about this. It’s hugely complicated, and it feels really good to have somebody really think and consider what Chuck and I have written.

I don’t have a huge amount to add to Chuck’s comment, given the constraints of a comment thread. I’m going to do a post tomorrow on LL that you are welcome to cross post if Chuck doesn’t mind.

A couple of quick points:

1) I think the permanent job number for the hub is down to about 70 now, (I know it’s under 100) with some portion of those jobs relocated from rail yards in Orlando and Tampa.

2) There is no second phase of the project, no high end biz park. There are no 1,800 jobs. There might be one day, but there’s no proposal of any kind now. Just trains for the hub.

3) The hub is one part of the larger CSX deal with the state. The other part is the relocation of existing freight traffic out of Orlando and onto a west Florida line that runs though Ocala, Plant City and Lakeland. The state would pay to upgrade this west Florida line so that CSX can run more trains on it. This deal is far worse than the hub by itself. It’s this deal that was defeated last session, at least temporarily. This deal has the state paying upwards of a billion dollars, through various elements of the plan, to help CSX establish its business plan in the Florida. The hub is key to that business plan, but it’s not everything.

4) With regard to #2, much has changed since this deal was first announced. The most prominent thing is the economy. Supporters of this sold the benefits of this whole package based on 2004-2005 growth rates of vehicle sales and consumer product container traffic and Florida population. I saw the graphs and powerpoints. All of those things have cratered, and gas is plummeting. Who knows if this is a temporary thing, or if Florida really is “over” as the Wall Street Journal reported a while back? But it does seem to me that all of the economic assumptions underpinning this deal – and that goes for skeptics and impact-worriers like me, as well – are out the window.

Chuck – thanks so much for your comments. I, too find their silence on the impact issue troubling. I wonder if they’ll foot the bill for any new road construction that becomes necessary due to increased truck traffic? Hmmm… me thinks…. um… no.

One of my problems with this project — in addition to all the secrecy of course — is the inflated job number. On June 19, 2007 I attended a meeting with CSX officials and we had quite a discussion about the expected jobs. Here’s a part of what I wrote then:

“• Jobs. Jobs. Jobs. Forget the 8500 number. Pretend you never heard it, because that depends on the hub attracting many businesses, and the number isn’t for employees in Winter Haven. Try these numbers:

• Somewhere below 200. They expect the terminal to need 200 employees, but will offer present Taft Yard employees the opportunity to transfer. So, less than 200 new jobs for Winter Haven.

• 1370 temporary construction jobs for whoever builds the thing. However, most construction companies are going to bring in their own people.

• 1800 jobs for the ILC:”

Note “CSX will own the terminal, but will not develop the rest of the facilities. They’ll find someone to do that for them.” That’s the 1800. 1100 of those jobs are estimated to average $36,800 for employee compensation. That includes salary, health insurance, retirement payments, and non-cash compensation. In other words, don’t think that is near the salary. I wonder if the salary will be a “living wage?”

And don’t forget even CSX estimates give the employee numbers as after 10 years. If they materialize.

I also would remind your readers of this: “A long discussion followed where the CSX officials were asked why they had measured “growth potential, but not impact potential.” The concern was raised that CSX was offering plenty of possible job numbers based on optimistic growth, but could not supply the same numbers for impact items (trucks traveling to and from the facility for example).”

Chuck Welch’s last blog post..Okay, Part 2 Will Wait Till Monday – LakelandLocal.com