The May 2009 Homes Under Contract numbers are in and we’re seeing a positive trend starting to take shape, though Florida and the rest of the South are remaining a bit flat.
Nationally – we’re at the fourth straight month in which home sales volume increased, corroborating the growing notion that housing is on the mend in most U.S. markets.
Real Estate News is a Regional Gig… National Numbers Often Mean Squat
Of course, as we know – national real estate data often means little – as home sales are a regional issue. As such, we see that in the southern part of the US, existing-home sales were unchanged at an annual pace of 1.74 million in May but are 8.9 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $157,400, down 9.9 percent from May 2008.
That said – static numbers are better than downward ones. So – we may yet see Florida homes on contract move up in months to come.
Consider these other housing-related stories from the past month:
Add these stories up, and it looks like the housing market is about to reach its bottom. (Though, we’re not there yet for sure.)
Nota Bene: Just because homes are going under contract to sell doesn’t mean that they actually will sell. As you know – and as I’ve seen first hand – even down to the closing table… a “deal” can fall apart for all sorts of reasons including failed home inspections, buyer-seller disputes, and mortgage-related problems. (But I NEVER have mortgage related problems of any sort… HVCC… Cough, Cough)
All in all, as the number of homes under contract increases, Existing Home Sales will rise as well – though it may not happen for up to 45-60 days into the future. And so long as buyers’ demand for homes remains strong, we would expect that home prices edge higher.
It’s too soon to say that housing has turned the corner for certain, but there’s an awful lot of data lately that suggests that we MAY be seeing the beginning of good things to come.
Technorati Tags: Florida Homes Under Contract, Florida Housing Sales, Florida Mortgage, florida real estate
Tampa and Miami home owners had something to feel good about as the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index Report showed improvement in their, and 17 other measured markets for April 2009. The national press was unusually upbeat about the report as well. Despite some of the headlines issued from sites like Business Week and Bloomberg.
Here are some of the headlines about the story:
Though the headlines feel negative, they really do show some of the upside for April’s housing value figures. For example, nearly half of the Case-Shiller markets posted gains in April and all but one showed month-over-month improvement.
Does This Report Mean We’re Out of the Woods?
Well, no – but it’s a step in the right direction. Remember – stats can tell multiple stories – depending how much we’re willing to read into them.
With reports like the Case-Shiller, we need to be careful with our interpretation because it’s an imperfect housing gauge. The most obvious Case-Shiller flaw is that it only measures home values in 20 cities nationwide and they’re not even the 20 biggest cities.
For example: Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio and San Jose are excluded from the report and each ranks among the country’s 10 largest housing markets based on population.
The Case-Shiller Index is valuable mainly because it identifies broader housing trends and that helps to shape economic policy.
What we see in this report that is verifiable is this: The pace at which home values are falling appears to be slowing – marking the 3rd straight month Case-Shiller has reported as such.
Now, three months makes a trend, but the data has to stay strong through the summer months to mark a bona fide turnaround. Keep an eye out. If we see similar metrics for May and June, it could be the signal for which the markets have been waiting.
Technorati Tags: Case-Shiller, Miami Home Prices, Tampa Home Prices
On the outset of 2009, the financial pundits made a good number of predictions about the U.S. economy and what to look for in 2009.
News Flash: Not one of them predicted just how big the government’s stimulus package would be.
Mid Year 2009 Review
We’re now at June 30th, marking the year’s official midway point – time to remember that people are a whole heck of a lot better at interpreting the financial arena’s past than they are at predicting its future.
Economists can make educated guesses about the future, but at the end of the day – a guess is a guess.
It sort of reminds me of watching Tom Terry, Chief Meteorologist over at Orlando’s News Channel WFTV (ABC Affiliate). Tom – who is great at his job, by the way, can look at the data and say it’s going to rain next week, but his forecast can never be 100% accurate.
Thus far through the first part of 2009, Florida mortgage rates have moved up and down, credit availability has been higher and lower, and home prices have varied widely from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Funny, I don’t recall hearing about this sort of volatility from the pundits.
We’ve another 6 months to go until 2010, and there’s no reason to expect the current Florida mortgage and housing trends to change.
The world of the day – kids – is unpredictable, and you can “predict” hearing more of this word as we make it through the coming months. Therefore, consider making your personal finance decisions based on the information at hand today instead of on an educated guess about the future.
After all, the weatherman’s been wrong before.
Technorati Tags: 2009 Mid Way Point, Florida Mortgage, Mortgage Review
Florida mortgage markets improved last week as we received little news of note from economic centers and the Fed’s report was pretty tame, all told.
Apart from some activity among the trading floor, 3 key events helped shape mortgage rate activity last week:
- Housing data suggested improvement
- Jobless data showed softness
- The Fed reported that growth appears on-track
Working together, these factors pushed Florida mortgage rates lower– for just the second time in the last 8 weeks.
Looking ahead to this week’s holiday-shortened trading sessions
Information abounds this week and a ton of information is set to release ahead of this holiday-shortened week. As always, we’ll be peering into the crystal ball to see whether mortgage rates will be getting better or worse. Look for reports to start rolling on tomorrow through Thursday. We’ll see information from the following sources:
- Tuesday: Consumer Confidence and Case-Shiller Index data
- Wednesday: Crude Inventory totals come in
- Thursday: June’s Jobs Report hits
Tuesday’s Information – Consumer Confidence and Home Price Information
The Consumer Confidence and Case-Shiller Index data should arrive around 9:00 AM ET. The Case-Shiller Index provides home price measurement information and always gets a ton of press. Strength in either Consumer Confidence or the Case-Shiller information will push Florida mortgage rates higher. Weakness in either will push them lower.
Wednesday’s News – The Crude Oil Inventory Report
Though I don’t normally watch the Crude Inventory report too closely, I do watch the gas prices at the local pumps with ongoing interest.
Gas prices dropped a bit last week, and information showing rising oil supplies could mean even lower gas prices ahead. This is anti-inflation and a good sign for Florida mortgage rates.
Thursday’s Information – June’s Jobs Report
Finally, Thursday brings us June’s jobs report. This report always gets mortgage rates moving — either up or down. With trading volume low by Thursday, mortgage rates should move on this Jobs report more than they do normally.
As always, if you’re in the market for a Florida mortgage, be ready to lock at a moment’s notice this week. Mortgage rates continue to be volatile and the holiday-shortened week is going to make this as true as ever. If you see Florida mortgage rates trending in your direction, consider locking one in.
Technorati Tags: Florida Mortgage, Florida Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Rates in Florida
